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It's Still the Economy |
| Section: CURRENT ISSUES / SPECIAL REPORT--ECONOMIC BOOM OR BUST? |
| Author: Bruce Bartlett |
| Publication: The world & I online |
| Issue Date: 2/1/1996 |
| Size: 2,134 Words, 13,332 Characters |
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By now, everyone knows about the sign that was posted in the Clinton campaign headquarters in 1992 that said, "It's the economy, stupid." The point was that all other issues were ultimately peripheral to voters; thus, the campaign should concentrate on that one central issue, the economy.
Although presidential elections are, of course, fought over many issues, experience and academic research support the Clinton view that economic conditions are key. For example, Richard Nixon always blamed the recession that began in April 1960 as the main reason for his loss to John F. Kennedy in November. "All the speeches, television broadcasts, and precinct work in the world could not counteract that one hard fact," Nixon said afterward.
In recent years, economists and political scientists have ...
. . .
...sowing the seeds of the next recession at this very moment. They may be sown by the Federal Reserve, OPEC, or some other factor we are presently unaware of. Based on history, these seeds are likely to sprout before the next presidential election. Those who are ready today to proclaim a second Clinton term, based on current economic data, would do well to remember their business-cycle history.
(812 of 13,332 characters)
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