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The Truth Lies in Between |
| Section: CURRENT ISSUES / SPECIAL REPORT--ECONOMIC BOOM OR BUST? |
| Author: Lawrence Chimerine |
| Publication: The world & I online |
| Issue Date: 2/1/1996 |
| Size: 1,588 Words, 10,604 Characters |
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As certain as night follows day, you can count on the annual barrage of economic forecasts that will flow like so many New Year's resolutions. They will range from the very short term to longer-term predictions, some with an optimistic bent and some more gloomy, some filled with quantitative detail while others offer more general descriptions.
Despite the usual uncertainties accompanying such prognostication, you can also count on the forecasters to appear as confident as ever in their own particular scenarios. Some will declare that signs point unambiguously to an economic boom in the making. With equal conviction, others will point to high unemployment in many regions, restrictive economic policies, huge budget deficits, and low savings; they will be equally persuaded that stagnation ...
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... of the planning, decision-making, and investment process. Nevertheless, the scenario presented here, a less-than-sterling, near-term outlook followed by a better long-term environment, is plausible on logical grounds and appears consistent with current information and trends. Hopefully, this scenario will track better than most of the New Year's resolutions. If not, there's always next year.
(806 of 10,604 characters)
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